What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 239 matches (Jan 2017 – Sep 2026), Pau FC drew 66 where the draw model expected 71.1 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 72.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 06 Apr 2026 → 21 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 24 Sep 2021 → 08 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 18 Dec 2020 → 05 Feb 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 20 May 2023 → 26 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 05 Sep 2025 → 03 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 17 Feb 2024 → 30 Mar 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 18 Feb 2023 → 01 Apr 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 02 Apr 2022 → 30 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 12 Feb 2022 → 15 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 30 Jan 2026 → 28 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 2 | 227 | 64 | 28.2% | 2 | 11 |
| Coupe de France | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27 | 6 | 22.2% | 12 |
| 2025 | 37 | 13 | 35.1% | 6 |
| 2024 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2023 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2022 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 2021 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 10 |
| 2020 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 5 |
| 2017 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2009 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 09:00 |
Toulouse
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.9% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
| Fri, 09 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 09 Oct 18:00 |
Pau FC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.7% |
|
| Fri, 16 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 16 Oct 18:00 |
EA Guingamp
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.7% |
|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 23 Oct 18:00 |
Pau FC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 31.6% |
|
| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 30 Oct 19:00 |
Metz
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.8% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 19:00 |
Pau FC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.6% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.