Nigeria
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 131 matches (Jan 2015 – Jun 2026), Nigeria drew 37 where the draw model expected 31.5 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 31.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 27 Apr 1991 → 25 Jan 1992 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 10 Apr 1994 → 06 Jan 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 28 May 2022 → 10 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 02 Jun 2018 → 16 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 17 Jun 2013 → 16 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 06 Nov 1972 → 08 Jan 1973 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 16 Jun 2019 → 17 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 22 Aug 1981 → 13 Mar 1982 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 11 Aug 2010 → 01 Jun 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 01 Jun 2008 → 19 Nov 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 265 | 84 | 31.7% | 1 | 9 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 124 | 38 | 30.7% | 0 | 6 |
| African Cup of Nations | 110 | 25 | 22.7% | 0 | 7 |
| African Cup of Nations qualification | 106 | 35 | 33.0% | 1 | 4 |
| FIFA World Cup | 21 | 3 | 14.3% | 3 | 4 |
| All-African Games | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 | 3 |
| Unity Cup | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Confederations Cup | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 | 3 |
| USA Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Korea Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| African Friendship Games | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| King Hassan II Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Nehru Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Lunar New Year Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2025 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 3 |
| 2024 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 4 |
| 2023 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2022 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 7 |
| 2021 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 2020 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 2019 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 9 |
| 2017 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2016 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2015 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2014 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 2013 | 22 | 8 | 36.4% | 9 |
| 2012 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 3 |
| 2011 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 2010 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2009 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 2 |
| 2008 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 7 |
| 2007 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2006 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 3 |
| 2005 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2004 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2003 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2002 | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 6 |
| 2001 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2000 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 1999 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 1997 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1996 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1995 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1994 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 11 |
| 1993 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1992 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1991 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 1990 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 1989 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1987 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1986 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1983 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% | 4 |
| 1982 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1980 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1979 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1976 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1975 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 1974 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1973 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1972 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 1971 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1968 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 2 |
| 1966 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1962 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1961 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1960 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1959 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1956 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
