Nashville SC
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 254 matches (May 2018 – Sep 2026), Nashville SC drew 76 where the draw model expected 67.2 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 63.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 20 Jun 2024 → 19 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 10 Aug 2025 → 01 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 15 Jun 2025 → 26 Jul 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 02 Mar 2025 → 27 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 18 Jun 2023 → 27 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 08 Mar 2026 → 26 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 14 May 2026 → 26 Jul 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 07 Aug 2022 → 04 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 18 Oct 2025 → 22 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 18 May 2023 → 04 Jun 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLS | 233 | 71 | 30.5% | 4 | 15 |
| US Open Cup | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 5 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 7 |
| 2025 | 43 | 7 | 16.3% | 9 |
| 2024 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 12 |
| 2023 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 8 |
| 2022 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | 6 |
| 2021 | 36 | 19 | 52.8% | 5 |
| 2020 | 26 | 10 | 38.5% | 3 |
| 2019 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2018 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 00:30 |
Austin FC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Wed, 14 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 14 Oct 00:30 |
Nashville SC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 11.1% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 02:30 |
San Jose Earthquakes
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 17:30 |
CF Montréal
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 00:30 |
Nashville SC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.6% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 21:30 |
Nashville SC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 21:00 |
FC Cincinnati
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.