CD Nacional
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 252 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), CD Nacional drew 60 where the draw model expected 62.1 from those particular fixtures — about 2 fewer, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 63.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 09 Feb 2021 → 01 May 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 08 Mar 2008 → 28 Sep 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 19 Apr 2004 → 24 Oct 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 01 Jun 2003 → 30 Nov 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 28 Nov 2004 → 18 Feb 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 15 Mar 2026 → 16 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 26 Feb 2016 → 01 May 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 25 Aug 2006 → 21 Oct 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 23 Oct 2005 → 22 Dec 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 21 Feb 2025 → 19 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 621 | 150 | 24.2% | 6 | 13 |
| UEFA Europa League | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 2 | 3 |
| Taça de Portugal | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 2 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 9 |
| 2025 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 8 |
| 2024 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 5 |
| 2023 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 13 |
| 2020 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 5 |
| 2019 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2018 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2017 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 6 |
| 2016 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2015 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2014 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 5 |
| 2013 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% | 8 |
| 2012 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | 8 |
| 2011 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2010 | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2009 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2008 | 28 | 7 | 25.0% | 13 |
| 2007 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 2006 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 9 |
| 2005 | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | 9 |
| 2004 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 13 |
| 2003 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 13 |
| 2002 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 5 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 14:30 |
Rio Ave
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.3% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Sanjoanense | vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 18:00 |
CD Nacional
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 15:30 |
Arouca
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 15:30 |
CD Nacional
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.