What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 116 matches (Jul 2023 – Aug 2026), Lumezzane drew 38 where the draw model expected 35.5 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 35.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 24 Aug 2025 → 13 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 7 | 20 Jul 2023 → 01 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 6 | 08 Dec 2023 → 20 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 5 | 10 Jan 2026 → 07 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 19 Oct 2024 → 10 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 13 Apr 2024 → 01 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 04 Feb 2024 → 23 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 14 Oct 2023 → 03 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 11 Jan 2025 → 02 Feb 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 22 Sep 2024 → 05 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 114 | 37 | 32.5% | 1 | 9 |
| Coppa Italia | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 0 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2025 | 37 | 16 | 43.2% | 9 |
| 2024 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 5 |
| 2023 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2013 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2011 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 09:00 |
Inter Milan
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.5% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.