Lech Poznań
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 507 matches (Feb 2015 – Sep 2026), Lech Poznań drew 124 where the draw model expected 130.7 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 132.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 04 Nov 2015 → 01 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 09 Dec 2025 → 22 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 17 Aug 2024 → 23 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 30 Sep 2012 → 10 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 06 Dec 2024 → 21 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 05 Aug 2013 → 29 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 24 Nov 2018 → 15 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 18 Feb 2018 → 28 Apr 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 28 Sep 1983 → 21 Nov 1984 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 16 Apr 2022 → 31 Jul 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ekstraklasa | 497 | 128 | 25.8% | 7 | 17 |
| Polish Cup | 148 | 36 | 24.3% | 3 | 10 |
| UEFA Europa League | 79 | 17 | 21.5% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Conference League | 22 | 5 | 22.7% | 5 | 5 |
| UEFA Champions League | 20 | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 0 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | 12 |
| 2025 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 11 |
| 2024 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 13 |
| 2023 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 7 |
| 2022 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 9 |
| 2021 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 7 |
| 2020 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 5 |
| 2019 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 6 |
| 2018 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 11 |
| 2017 | 48 | 16 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2016 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 9 |
| 2015 | 56 | 11 | 19.6% | 10 |
| 2014 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 9 |
| 2013 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 12 |
| 2012 | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 10 |
| 2011 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 2010 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 6 |
| 2009 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2008 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2007 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2004 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2003 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2002 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2001 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2000 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1999 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1997 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1996 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1995 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1994 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1993 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1992 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1989 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1988 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1987 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1985 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1984 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1983 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1982 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1980 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 11:30 |
Lech Poznań
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.1% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
| Thu, 15 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 15 Oct 16:45 |
Lech Poznań
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Thu, 22 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 22 Oct 16:45 |
Lech Poznań
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 20:00 |
SL Benfica
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.