What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 105 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2021), Kardemir Karabükspor drew 18 where the draw model expected 24.8 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running.
A flat league average would have expected 25.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims.
These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
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