Grêmio
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 482 matches (Apr 2015 – Sep 2026), Grêmio drew 126 where the draw model expected 136.5 from those particular fixtures — about 10 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 129.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 08 Oct 2023 → 28 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 10 Oct 2019 → 08 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 27 Jul 2021 → 04 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 20 May 2012 → 05 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 04 Jun 2015 → 21 Jul 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 09 Aug 2013 → 15 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 10 Oct 2021 → 20 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 19 Jul 2014 → 10 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 20 Nov 2025 → 26 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 14 May 2017 → 16 Jun 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 522 | 135 | 25.9% | 0 | 22 |
| Copa do Brasil | 79 | 25 | 31.7% | 1 | 7 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 2025 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2023 | 48 | 9 | 18.8% | 13 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 14 |
| 2020 | 32 | 13 | 40.6% | 8 |
| 2019 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 15 |
| 2018 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 4 |
| 2017 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 9 |
| 2016 | 46 | 14 | 30.4% | 8 |
| 2015 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 12 |
| 2014 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 11 |
| 2013 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 12 |
| 2012 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 14 |
| 1995 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1983 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 21:30 |
Grêmio
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.7% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 21:00 |
Atlético Mineiro
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.