What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 418 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Gateshead drew 99 where the draw model expected 108.3 from those particular fixtures — about 9 fewer, or 1.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 105.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 01 Nov 2025 → 21 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 27 Aug 2018 → 10 Nov 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 05 Mar 2024 → 17 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 16 Apr 2016 → 20 Aug 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 04 Mar 2025 → 26 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 01 Apr 2017 → 19 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 31 Aug 2013 → 19 Oct 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 06 Apr 2026 → 31 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 06 Apr 2015 → 18 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 01 Jan 2013 → 09 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National League | 654 | 170 | 26.0% | 6 | 15 |
| FA Cup | 97 | 14 | 14.4% | 2 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | 10 |
| 2025 | 48 | 9 | 18.8% | 11 |
| 2024 | 46 | 7 | 15.2% | 13 |
| 2023 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 7 |
| 2022 | 24 | 8 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2021 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2019 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% | 5 |
| 2018 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 14 |
| 2017 | 45 | 14 | 31.1% | 11 |
| 2016 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 12 |
| 2015 | 48 | 9 | 18.8% | 9 |
| 2014 | 50 | 19 | 38.0% | 6 |
| 2013 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 11 |
| 2012 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 9 |
| 2011 | 53 | 16 | 30.2% | 7 |
| 2010 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 9 |
| 2009 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% | 7 |
| 2000 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1999 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1992 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1953 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1952 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1951 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1945 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1931 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Halifax Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 23 Oct 18:45 |
Gateshead
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Tue, 27 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 27 Oct 19:45 |
Boston United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.7% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Aldershot Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.