Ararat-Armenia
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 290 matches (Sep 2017 – Oct 2026), Ararat-Armenia drew 56 where the draw model expected 59.0 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 59.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 22 May 2021 → 28 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 15 Mar 2025 → 28 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 26 May 2024 → 06 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 28 Aug 2022 → 03 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 18 Sep 2019 → 04 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 26 Apr 2019 → 09 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 31 Oct 2018 → 17 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 03 Mar 2024 → 17 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 03 May 2026 → 03 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 03 May 2022 → 11 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 244 | 49 | 20.1% | 8 | 16 |
| Armenian Cup | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 0 | 6 |
| UEFA Europa League | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Conference League | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2025 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 14 |
| 2024 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 2023 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 6 |
| 2022 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 12 |
| 2021 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 18 |
| 2020 | 25 | 8 | 32.0% | 4 |
| 2019 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 12 |
| 2018 | 21 | 6 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 2017 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 15 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 15 Oct 19:00 |
Jagiellonia Białystok
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.8% |
|
| Thu, 22 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 22 Oct 16:45 |
Ararat-Armenia
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 20:00 |
Torreense
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.