SC Farense
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 120 matches (Sep 2020 – Sep 2026), SC Farense drew 29 where the draw model expected 28.3 from those particular fixtures — about 1 more, or 0.1 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 29.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 04 Mar 1995 → 23 Sep 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 22 Oct 1995 → 21 Jan 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 23 Apr 2001 → 09 Sep 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 14 Jul 2023 → 30 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 04 Feb 1996 → 06 Apr 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 26 Apr 1998 → 21 Sep 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 07 Mar 2021 → 20 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 23 Jan 2000 → 04 Mar 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 04 Oct 1998 → 22 Nov 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 11 Apr 1997 → 25 May 1997 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 374 | 98 | 26.2% | 6 | 17 |
| Taça de Portugal | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 | 2 |
| UEFA Europa League | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2025 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 6 |
| 2024 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 6 |
| 2023 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2022 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2021 | 25 | 7 | 28.0% | 7 |
| 2020 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2002 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2001 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2000 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 7 |
| 1999 | 33 | 13 | 39.4% | 6 |
| 1998 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 8 |
| 1997 | 35 | 15 | 42.9% | 7 |
| 1996 | 31 | 8 | 25.8% | 9 |
| 1995 | 38 | 4 | 10.5% | 19 |
| 1994 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 7 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
SC Farense
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.