Chemnitzer
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 253 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Chemnitzer drew 65 where the draw model expected 68.8 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 67.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 14 Oct 2017 → 07 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 02 Sep 2023 → 31 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 24 Feb 2020 → 23 Jun 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 10 Mar 2024 → 12 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 12 Mar 2016 → 14 May 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 28 Oct 2014 → 07 Feb 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 18 Sep 1993 → 20 Nov 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 11 Feb 2017 → 31 Mar 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 09 Aug 2015 → 22 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 02 Aug 2011 → 17 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. Liga | 304 | 79 | 26.0% | 2 | 16 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 174 | 49 | 28.2% | 2 | 10 |
| Regionalliga Nordost | 79 | 19 | 24.1% | 4 | 14 |
| DFB-Pokal | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 0 | 1 |
| UEFA Europa League | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Champions League | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2024 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 10 |
| 2023 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 12 |
| 2022 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 6 |
| 2020 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 11 |
| 2019 | 21 | 9 | 42.9% | 5 |
| 2018 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2017 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2016 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2015 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 9 |
| 2014 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 8 |
| 2013 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 7 |
| 2012 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 7 |
| 2011 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% | 9 |
| 2010 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2001 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2000 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 1999 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 4 |
| 1996 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 1995 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 1994 | 36 | 15 | 41.7% | 4 |
| 1993 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 10 |
| 1990 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1967 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.