What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 17 Aug 2021 → 12 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 30 | 15 Apr 1995 → 04 Nov 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 29 | 05 Feb 2005 → 01 Oct 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 26 | 10 May 2025 → 04 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 25 | 19 Oct 2013 → 08 Mar 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 23 | 16 Feb 2020 → 18 Sep 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 23 | 18 Dec 2012 → 01 May 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 23 | 08 Apr 2000 → 21 Oct 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 21 | 28 Oct 2017 → 20 Feb 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 19 | 22 Oct 2019 → 05 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 1130 | 220 | 19.5% | 0 | 25 |
| UEFA Champions League | 424 | 86 | 20.3% | 1 | 19 |
| DFB-Pokal | 97 | 10 | 10.3% | 8 | 12 |
| UEFA Europa League | 68 | 13 | 19.1% | 1 | 9 |
| Club Friendlies | 38 | 5 | 13.2% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 1 | 6 |
| DFL-Supercup | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 0 | 5 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 0 | 2 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50 | 9 | 18.0% | 10 |
| 2025 | 61 | 8 | 13.1% | 26 |
| 2024 | 54 | 8 | 14.8% | 9 |
| 2023 | 54 | 9 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 2022 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 10 |
| 2021 | 58 | 6 | 10.3% | 25 |
| 2020 | 50 | 6 | 12.0% | 23 |
| 2019 | 50 | 9 | 18.0% | 14 |
| 2018 | 56 | 8 | 14.3% | 13 |
| 2017 | 54 | 8 | 14.8% | 12 |
| 2016 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 10 |
| 2015 | 56 | 6 | 10.7% | 17 |
| 2014 | 53 | 7 | 13.2% | 12 |
| 2013 | 56 | 4 | 7.1% | 22 |
| 2012 | 54 | 9 | 16.7% | 18 |
| 2011 | 47 | 5 | 10.6% | 14 |
| 2010 | 53 | 10 | 18.9% | 8 |
| 2009 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 8 |
| 2008 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 6 |
| 2007 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 7 |
| 2006 | 45 | 14 | 31.1% | 11 |
| 2005 | 44 | 4 | 9.1% | 29 |
| 2004 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 14 |
| 2003 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 8 |
| 2002 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 8 |
| 2001 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 8 |
| 2000 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 23 |
| 1999 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 7 |
| 1998 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 10 |
| 1997 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 10 |
| 1996 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 11 |
| 1995 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 30 |
| 1994 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 6 |
| 1993 | 24 | 9 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 1991 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1990 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11 |
| 1987 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 1986 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1985 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1983 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1982 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1981 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1980 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1979 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 1977 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1976 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 9 |
| 1975 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 1974 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1972 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1969 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1966 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
Over 642 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), FC Bayern München drew 97 where the draw model expected 101.3 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 153.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.