SV Babelsberg 03
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 237 matches (Jul 2001 – Sep 2026), SV Babelsberg 03 drew 60 where the draw model expected 63.7 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 62.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 03 Sep 2023 → 27 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 25 Jul 2010 → 24 Sep 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 09 Sep 2011 → 05 Nov 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 24 Mar 2012 → 28 Apr 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 15 Dec 2001 → 24 Feb 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 21 May 2023 → 20 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 11 Aug 2012 → 22 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 09 Mar 2002 → 12 Apr 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 06 Nov 2022 → 10 Dec 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 19 Mar 2011 → 09 Apr 2011 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. Liga | 114 | 31 | 27.2% | 3 | 10 |
| Regionalliga Nordost | 79 | 21 | 26.6% | 3 | 11 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 0 | 8 |
| DFB-Pokal | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 2024 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 3 |
| 2023 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 10 |
| 2022 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2021 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2013 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 4 |
| 2012 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 8 |
| 2011 | 41 | 14 | 34.2% | 9 |
| 2010 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 11 |
| 2009 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2006 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2002 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 6 |
| 2001 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 5 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.