What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26 | 01 Jul 2021 → 12 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 10 May 2023 → 24 Jun 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 02 Oct 2024 → 30 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 13 May 2026 → 19 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 21 Sep 2025 → 02 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 13 Aug 2022 → 14 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 10 Oct 2026 → 31 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 12 Apr 2025 → 10 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 23 Mar 2024 → 27 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 08 Jul 2023 → 30 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLS | 208 | 49 | 23.6% | 6 | 26 |
| US Open Cup | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 8 |
| 2025 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 8 |
| 2024 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 6 |
| 2023 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 11 |
| 2022 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2021 | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | 23 |
Over 218 matches (Apr 2021 – Oct 2026), Austin FC drew 53 where the draw model expected 56.6 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 54.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.