▦ FDB4
No-draw streak ‹ back to records
USA · Club

Austin FC

A run of consecutive matches without a draw.
26
non-draws in a row
01 Jul 2021 → 12 Mar 2022
Was this a feat, or a coincidence? how this is worked out ›
Draws the model expected 7.0 across these 26 fixtures, one chance each
A flat league rate expected 6.3 the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures
Chance of no draw at all 1 in 3,530 for this run alone — and that overstates it
Runs this long, expected anywhere 125.07 across every run in the database

Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.02× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

Matches in this run
Date Home Score Away R Tournament
the draw before the run
27 Jun 2021 Austin FC 0–0 Columbus Crew D USA · MLS
☆ 01 Jul 2021 Austin FC 4–1 Portland Timbers H USA · MLS
☆ 07 Jul 2021 Austin FC 0–2 Los Angeles FC A USA · MLS
☆ 22 Jul 2021 Austin FC 0–1 Seattle Sounders A USA · MLS
☆ 31 Jul 2021 Austin FC 0–1 Colorado Rapids A USA · MLS
☆ 04 Aug 2021 Austin FC 3–2 Houston Dynamo H USA · MLS
☆ 07 Aug 2021 FC Dallas 2–0 Austin FC H USA · MLS
☆ 14 Aug 2021 Real Salt Lake 1–0 Austin FC H USA · MLS
☆ 18 Aug 2021 Austin FC 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps A USA · MLS
☆ 21 Aug 2021 Austin FC 3–1 Portland Timbers H USA · MLS
☆ 29 Aug 2021 Austin FC 3–5 FC Dallas A USA · MLS
☆ 04 Sep 2021 Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 Austin FC H USA · MLS
☆ 11 Sep 2021 Houston Dynamo 3–0 Austin FC H USA · MLS
☆ 15 Sep 2021 Austin FC 1–2 Los Angeles FC A USA · MLS
☆ 18 Sep 2021 Austin FC 3–4 San Jose Earthquakes A USA · MLS
☆ 26 Sep 2021 Austin FC 2–0 LA Galaxy H USA · MLS
☆ 29 Sep 2021 Colorado Rapids 3–0 Austin FC H USA · MLS
☆ 02 Oct 2021 Austin FC 2–1 Real Salt Lake H USA · MLS
☆ 16 Oct 2021 Austin FC 0–1 Minnesota United A USA · MLS
☆ 20 Oct 2021 San Jose Earthquakes 4–0 Austin FC H USA · MLS
☆ 24 Oct 2021 Austin FC 2–1 Houston Dynamo H USA · MLS
☆ 30 Oct 2021 FC Dallas 2–1 Austin FC H USA · MLS
☆ 03 Nov 2021 Austin FC 3–1 Sporting Kansas City H USA · MLS
☆ 07 Nov 2021 Portland Timbers 3–0 Austin FC H USA · MLS
☆ 26 Feb 2022 Austin FC 5–0 FC Cincinnati H USA · MLS
☆ 06 Mar 2022 Austin FC 5–1 Inter Miami CF H USA · MLS
☆ 12 Mar 2022 Portland Timbers 1–0 Austin FC H USA · MLS
the draw that ended it
20 Mar 2022 Austin FC 1–1 Seattle Sounders D USA · MLS

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