What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 138 matches (May 1976 – Sep 2026), Al Nassr drew 24 where the draw model expected 27.2 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 27.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 21 Dec 2022 → 20 Jul 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 5 | 28 Jul 2026 → 09 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 5 | 30 Jul 2025 → 28 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 5 | 27 Oct 2020 → 04 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 23 Apr 2012 → 18 May 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 4 | 09 Nov 2019 → 17 Jan 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 03 Jan 2019 → 01 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 20 Jan 2016 → 30 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 23 Feb 1987 → 13 Mar 1987 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 06 Jan 1986 → 17 Jan 1986 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King's Cup | 114 | 19 | 16.7% | 2 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 3 | 4 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Saudi Pro League | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2025 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 2023 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2020 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2018 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2017 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2016 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2015 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2014 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2013 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2011 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2010 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2009 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2000 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1987 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1985 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1984 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1983 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1982 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1976 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 09 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 09 Oct 18:00 |
Al Nassr
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.8% |
|
| Thu, 15 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 15 Oct 18:00 |
Al-Ahli
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Tue, 20 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 20 Oct 18:00 |
Al Nassr
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 23 Oct 13:30 | Al-Faisaly | vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.3% |
|
| Thu, 29 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 29 Oct 18:00 |
Al Nassr
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 20:00 |
Al Hazem
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.6% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.