Al-Ahli
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 110 matches (May 1976 – Sep 2026), Al-Ahli drew 18 where the draw model expected 21.4 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 21.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 29 Mar 2014 → 01 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 5 | 26 Aug 2026 → 11 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 5 | 20 Jan 2017 → 18 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 5 | 04 May 2013 → 28 May 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 21 Mar 1984 → 06 May 1984 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 14 Apr 1983 → 13 May 1983 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 09 May 1979 → 08 Jun 1979 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 05 May 1977 → 27 May 1977 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 06 May 1976 → 04 Jun 1976 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 05 Nov 2019 → 18 Jan 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King's Cup | 104 | 18 | 17.3% | 0 | 6 |
| Saudi Pro League | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| FIFA Intercontinental Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2025 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2018 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2016 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2015 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2014 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2013 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2012 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2011 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1989 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1988 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1987 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1986 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1984 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1983 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1982 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1979 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1978 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1976 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 09 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 09 Oct 14:55 |
Al Fateh
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Thu, 15 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 15 Oct 18:00 |
Al-Ahli
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Mon, 19 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 19 Oct 15:05 |
Al Fayha
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Thu, 22 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 22 Oct 18:00 |
Al-Ahli
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 30 Oct 18:00 |
Al Shabab
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 20:00 |
Al-Ahli
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.