1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 159 matches (Jul 1963 – Sep 2026), 1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig drew 38 where the draw model expected 37.0 from those particular fixtures — about 1 more, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 36.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 18 Sep 2022 → 27 Jan 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 21 May 2023 → 15 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 15 Jul 1973 → 04 Nov 1973 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 6 | 09 Dec 2023 → 23 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 04 Aug 2026 → 30 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 19 Aug 1966 → 04 Oct 1966 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 27 Apr 2024 → 19 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 03 Mar 1982 → 29 Jul 1982 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 19 Aug 1981 → 30 Sep 1981 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 21 Apr 2023 → 05 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regionalliga Nordost | 79 | 20 | 25.3% | 2 | 11 |
| UEFA Europa League | 32 | 4 | 12.5% | 1 | 10 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 1 | 4 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 2 | 5 |
| DFB-Pokal | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2024 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 5 |
| 2023 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 10 |
| 2022 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 10 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1988 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1986 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1982 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1981 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1976 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1965 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.