RKC Waalwijk

A run of consecutive matches without a draw.

non-draws in a row

01 Aug 2009 → 02 May 2010

Was this a feat, or a coincidence? how this is worked out ›

Draws the model expected 7.4 across these 35 fixtures, one chance each

A flat league rate expected 8.5 the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures

Chance of no draw at all 1 in 4,440 for this run alone — and that overstates it

Runs this long, expected anywhere 12.70 across every run in the database

Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.08× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

Matches in this run

Date	Home	Score	Away	R	Tournament
Run bounded by a coverage gap — the previous match on record is more than 140 days away, so no draw started this run.
☆ 01 Aug 2009 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 0–1 Utrecht ☆ 08 Aug 2009 · NED · Eredivisie Ajax 4–1 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 15 Aug 2009 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 0–6 AZ Alkmaar ☆ 23 Aug 2009 · NED · Eredivisie Twente 2–1 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 28 Aug 2009 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 0–2 ADO Den Haag ☆ 13 Sep 2009 · NED · Eredivisie Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 19 Sep 2009 · NED · Eredivisie Vitesse Arnhem 3–1 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 22 Sep 2009 · NED · KNVB Cup Heracles 1–0 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 26 Sep 2009 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 4–1 Roda JC Kerkrade ☆ 03 Oct 2009 · NED · Eredivisie Feyenoord 3–0 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 18 Oct 2009 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 0–1 Heracles ☆ 24 Oct 2009 · NED · Eredivisie NAC Breda 1–0 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 01 Nov 2009 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 0–1 Willem II Tilburg ☆ 07 Nov 2009 · NED · Eredivisie NEC Nijmegen 0–1 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 21 Nov 2009 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 3–1 Groningen ☆ 28 Nov 2009 · NED · Eredivisie SC Heerenveen 3–1 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 06 Dec 2009 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 0–2 PSV Eindhoven ☆ 12 Dec 2009 · NED · Eredivisie VVV-Venlo 3–0 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 19 Dec 2009 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 4–1 Sparta Rotterdam ☆ 23 Jan 2010 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 0–1 NAC Breda ☆ 29 Jan 2010 · NED · Eredivisie Willem II Tilburg 2–1 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 04 Feb 2010 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 0–1 Feyenoord ☆ 07 Feb 2010 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 0–1 NEC Nijmegen ☆ 14 Feb 2010 · NED · Eredivisie Groningen 2–1 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 20 Feb 2010 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 1–2 SC Heerenveen ☆ 28 Feb 2010 · NED · Eredivisie PSV Eindhoven 5–1 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 07 Mar 2010 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 0–1 Twente ☆ 13 Mar 2010 · NED · Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar 6–2 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 21 Mar 2010 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 1–5 Ajax ☆ 28 Mar 2010 · NED · Eredivisie Utrecht 2–0 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 03 Apr 2010 · NED · Eredivisie Roda JC Kerkrade 5–1 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 09 Apr 2010 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 4–1 Vitesse Arnhem ☆ 13 Apr 2010 · NED · Eredivisie Heracles 4–1 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 18 Apr 2010 · NED · Eredivisie ADO Den Haag 4–0 RKC Waalwijk ☆ 02 May 2010 · NED · Eredivisie RKC Waalwijk 1–2 VVV-Venlo
☆ 01 Aug 2009	RKC Waalwijk	0–1	Utrecht	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 08 Aug 2009	Ajax	4–1	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 15 Aug 2009	RKC Waalwijk	0–6	AZ Alkmaar	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 23 Aug 2009	Twente	2–1	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 28 Aug 2009	RKC Waalwijk	0–2	ADO Den Haag	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 13 Sep 2009	Sparta Rotterdam	1–0	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 19 Sep 2009	Vitesse Arnhem	3–1	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 22 Sep 2009	Heracles	1–0	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · KNVB Cup
☆ 26 Sep 2009	RKC Waalwijk	4–1	Roda JC Kerkrade	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 03 Oct 2009	Feyenoord	3–0	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 18 Oct 2009	RKC Waalwijk	0–1	Heracles	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 24 Oct 2009	NAC Breda	1–0	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 01 Nov 2009	RKC Waalwijk	0–1	Willem II Tilburg	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 07 Nov 2009	NEC Nijmegen	0–1	RKC Waalwijk	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 21 Nov 2009	RKC Waalwijk	3–1	Groningen	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 28 Nov 2009	SC Heerenveen	3–1	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 06 Dec 2009	RKC Waalwijk	0–2	PSV Eindhoven	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 12 Dec 2009	VVV-Venlo	3–0	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 19 Dec 2009	RKC Waalwijk	4–1	Sparta Rotterdam	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 23 Jan 2010	RKC Waalwijk	0–1	NAC Breda	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 29 Jan 2010	Willem II Tilburg	2–1	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 04 Feb 2010	RKC Waalwijk	0–1	Feyenoord	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 07 Feb 2010	RKC Waalwijk	0–1	NEC Nijmegen	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 14 Feb 2010	Groningen	2–1	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 20 Feb 2010	RKC Waalwijk	1–2	SC Heerenveen	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 28 Feb 2010	PSV Eindhoven	5–1	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 07 Mar 2010	RKC Waalwijk	0–1	Twente	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 13 Mar 2010	AZ Alkmaar	6–2	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 21 Mar 2010	RKC Waalwijk	1–5	Ajax	A	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 28 Mar 2010	Utrecht	2–0	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 03 Apr 2010	Roda JC Kerkrade	5–1	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 09 Apr 2010	RKC Waalwijk	4–1	Vitesse Arnhem	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 13 Apr 2010	Heracles	4–1	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 18 Apr 2010	ADO Den Haag	4–0	RKC Waalwijk	H	NED · Eredivisie
☆ 02 May 2010	RKC Waalwijk	1–2	VVV-Venlo	A	NED · Eredivisie
Run bounded by a coverage gap — the next match on record is more than 140 days away, so no draw ended this run.