Who is overdue a draw?

Ranks teams by a draw-likelihood score blending recent draw rate (p50 / p100), the current no-draw streak N, how stretched it is versus the team's own record (N / Max), and the resulting "draw debt" E = p_weighted × N. A team sitting at its record max is more overdue than one with plenty of headroom. The score is relative to the teams in view.

“Overdue” describes the run, not evidence that a draw is coming: over a million team-matches, neither N, E nor the score raises the next match's draw chance.

Candidates100

Top score 0.287 Arsenal

Global draws24.3%132,783 drawn

No-draw N 22 Raufoss IL

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Draw predictor ranking 100 rows

E = draw debt (p_weighted × N) N = current no-draw streak Max = record no-draw streak Avg = typical long run (avg of top 10) p100 = draw rate, last 100 Draw% = all-time draw rate Score = draw likelihood (0–1), ranked vs all teams

#	Team	E	N	Max	Avg	p100	Draw%	Score▾
01	Hartlepool United	4.16	16	16	13.7	30%	26.1%	0.683
02	Raufoss IL	4.18	22	22	14.9	21%	19.9%	0.681
03	SCR Altach	4.11	13	19	12.2	34%	26.1%	0.636
04	FC Juárez	3.28	14	14	10.1	23%	24.3%	0.626
05	Dumbarton	3.58	16	19	16.0	24%	20.4%	0.618
06	RB Leipzig	3.39	22	26	15.2	19%	21.6%	0.613
07	IK Start	3.23	16	17	14.5	23%	21.7%	0.612
08	Kelty Hearts	2.93	11	11	8.3	27%	25.1%	0.607
09	Serbia	3.17	13	15	9.9	26%	25.4%	0.601
10	Croatia	3.04	13	15	9.2	23%	25.9%	0.593
11	Montrose	3.24	15	19	15.1	24%	22.2%	0.588
12	SK Rapid Wien	3.42	18	26	15.0	21%	20.6%	0.586
13	Altrincham	2.75	17	18	12.3	19%	24.6%	0.586
14	VPS Vaasa	2.76	12	13	10.1	21%	24.5%	0.582
15	Unión de Santa Fe	2.84	9	12	8.1	30%	34.4%	0.579
16	FCV Dender EH	2.82	10	12	7.0	27%	22.6%	0.574
17	Qingdao Hainiu	2.26	10	10	6.8	23%	22.4%	0.560
18	Jagiellonia Białystok	3.15	11	17	11.7	29%	27.1%	0.559
19	France	2.62	16	19	13.8	18%	20.6%	0.557
20	FSV 63 Luckenwalde	2.20	11	11	6.0	24%	24.1%	0.556
21	Vaduz	2.21	12	12	6.0	20%	22.7%	0.555
22	Ospitaletto	1.54	4	4	2.9	38%	38.5%	0.554
23	Albania	2.45	12	14	10.6	18%	21.0%	0.548
24	Orenburg	2.60	11	15	8.8	26%	24.4%	0.544
25	M'gladbach	2.86	13	18	14.2	22%	25.7%	0.542
26	Ipswich Town	3.25	14	24	15.7	24%	26.0%	0.542
27	Novara	3.47	8	16	10.9	43%	32.2%	0.538
28	FC Rostov	2.41	9	12	9.2	26%	27.2%	0.536
29	UD Almería	2.11	13	15	12.4	19%	26.8%	0.532
30	Rosenborg BK	3.05	14	20	16.7	23%	21.6%	0.531
31	Degerfors IF	2.70	13	21	10.5	20%	19.8%	0.527
32	RSV Eintracht 1949	1.50	6	6	4.0	25%	25.0%	0.518
33	Çorum	1.38	5	5	3.0	28%	27.6%	0.516
34	AS Cittadella	2.44	10	15	10.9	26%	30.1%	0.514
35	Polissya Zhytomyr	2.18	10	15	7.3	27%	21.8%	0.504
36	Vis Pesaro	2.59	7	14	8.2	35%	33.0%	0.503
37	US Lecce	2.22	11	17	11.4	23%	28.6%	0.502
38	Corinthians	2.05	9	13	9.3	22%	29.9%	0.502
39	Andorra	1.78	9	11	7.7	21%	22.8%	0.501
40	Argentina	2.41	17	33	14.7	17%	23.9%	0.500
41	Ilves Tampere	2.07	11	16	10.7	18%	21.4%	0.498
42	Olympique de Marseille	1.75	12	14	12.8	15%	25.6%	0.493
43	Al-Hilal	1.40	5	6	4.5	28%	25.7%	0.491
44	Van	1.80	10	13	9.5	18%	19.4%	0.490
45	Mito HollyHock	0.67	2	2	2.0	33%	33.3%	0.489
46	Columbus Crew	2.76	12	25	14.0	25%	26.4%	0.489
47	Liechtenstein	1.90	17	24	11.4	12%	12.3%	0.485
48	Venezia	1.94	8	11	9.3	27%	30.5%	0.480
49	Académico de Viseu	0.94	4	4	4.0	24%	23.5%	0.479
50	Al Kholood	0.62	2	2	2.0	31%	30.8%	0.479
51	FK Bodø/Glimt	2.02	14	20	15.7	16%	20.4%	0.474
52	Kudrivka	1.20	5	6	4.1	24%	23.9%	0.471
53	Scunthorpe United	2.46	11	19	14.8	24%	27.3%	0.463
54	Urawa Red Diamonds	1.89	8	12	9.3	26%	25.0%	0.462
55	Carpi	1.63	6	9	6.8	28%	29.3%	0.459
56	Neuchâtel Xamax	1.55	7	10	7.4	25%	21.2%	0.458
57	Turkey	1.75	9	13	10.1	23%	23.5%	0.458
58	IFK Mariehamn	1.89	8	12	9.6	22%	24.2%	0.456
59	Hamburger SV	2.66	10	20	14.4	27%	25.8%	0.455
60	Raków Częstochowa	2.16	9	17	10.9	24%	23.0%	0.450
61	United States	1.94	12	19	14.1	19%	20.3%	0.450
62	Córdoba CF	2.12	9	16	11.7	26%	27.8%	0.446
63	RAAL La Louvière	1.12	3	6	3.1	37%	36.7%	0.444
64	1. FC Magdeburg II	0.82	9	9	9.0	9%	9.1%	0.444
65	GKS Katowice	1.87	8	17	8.5	23%	21.4%	0.444
66	Eyüpspor	1.43	7	12	5.3	22%	23.5%	0.444
67	Annan Athletic	2.57	12	31	15.5	21%	23.1%	0.442
68	Porto	2.21	14	24	18.3	17%	17.7%	0.441
69	Minnesota United	2.16	7	13	9.8	30%	25.1%	0.439
70	Norwich City	1.96	11	20	13.3	19%	24.6%	0.438
71	FC København	1.87	11	20	12.7	19%	22.6%	0.438
72	Clube do Remo	1.03	5	7	3.4	21%	21.1%	0.436
73	Al-Ahli	0.82	5	6	5.0	18%	16.4%	0.430
74	Universitatea Cluj	1.69	9	18	10.0	22%	25.2%	0.429
75	Vasco da Gama	1.89	8	17	9.8	26%	28.5%	0.427
76	Kashiwa Reysol	2.54	8	24	12.0	33%	25.7%	0.423
77	Würzburger Kickers	1.69	7	14	8.4	23%	27.9%	0.423
78	Stade Lausanne Ouchy	1.24	7	12	4.7	16%	16.3%	0.422
79	Brøndby IF	2.13	8	15	12.1	27%	24.5%	0.420
80	Randers FC	2.02	8	16	11.2	26%	26.7%	0.419
81	VSG Altglienicke	1.28	5	10	5.3	25%	25.3%	0.419
82	Atalanta BC	2.00	9	16	13.4	25%	27.9%	0.417
83	Rodina Moscow	0.44	4	4	2.7	11%	11.1%	0.417
84	Sporting Charleroi	1.89	9	15	13.1	23%	24.7%	0.415
85	Instituto de Córdoba	1.42	6	12	6.8	22%	26.8%	0.414
86	KV Kortrijk	1.84	10	20	12.7	20%	21.8%	0.412
87	Kocaelispor	1.94	8	17	11.2	23%	24.8%	0.407
88	Neom SC	0.30	3	3	2.5	10%	10.0%	0.404
89	Yverdon-Sport	1.22	5	10	5.4	22%	18.4%	0.403
90	Djurgårdens IF	2.00	10	22	14.5	20%	22.7%	0.398
91	Orlando City SC	1.63	8	17	10.4	22%	26.3%	0.396
92	Almere City	1.10	4	9	4.4	27%	26.2%	0.396
93	Kosovo	1.37	6	13	6.9	22%	21.3%	0.396
94	FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc	1.15	5	14	4.9	24%	23.8%	0.396
95	SS Arezzo	1.58	8	23	9.4	21%	31.3%	0.396
96	Nagoya Grampus	1.55	8	14	10.9	19%	23.1%	0.395
97	Corvinul Hunedoara	0.81	3	7	2.8	28%	27.6%	0.395
98	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	0.97	4	9	4.2	24%	24.3%	0.392
99	Norway	1.58	8	14	11.3	21%	22.3%	0.392
100	Club Brugge KV	1.82	14	29	20.2	15%	19.2%	0.388

Prediction detail Arsenal

ENG · Arsenal

0.287

draw-likelihood score · rank #416

draw debt E

1.60

8 since last draw

p100 · last 100 draw rate 20%

p50 · last 50 draw rate 20%

overall draw rate 23%

recent form · draws highlighted

W L D L W D W W W W W D W L L D W W W W W W W L

19 Sep 2026 Brighton & Hove Albion 3–0 Arsenal A ENG Premier League

15 Sep 2026 Ipswich Town 2–4 Arsenal A ENG League Cup

12 Sep 2026 Sunderland 0–2 Arsenal A ENG Premier League

09 Sep 2026 SSC Napoli 0–1 Arsenal A ITL UEFA Champions League

06 Sep 2026 Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea H ENG Premier League

31 Aug 2026 Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal A ENG Premier League

21 Aug 2026 Arsenal 3–0 Coventry City H ENG Premier League

16 Aug 2026 Arsenal 3–0 Manchester City H ENG FA Community Shield

12 Aug 2026 Arsenal 4–3(ft:1–1) Como 1907 D ITL Club Friendlies

09 Aug 2026 Arsenal 5–4(ft:2–3) Borussia Dortmund H ITL Club Friendlies

05 Aug 2026 Arsenal 1–3 Real Betis H ITL Club Friendlies

01 Aug 2026 Girona 1–4 Arsenal A ITL Club Friendlies

30 May 2026 Paris Saint-Germain 4–3(ft:1–1) Arsenal D ITL UEFA Champions League

24 May 2026 Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal A ENG Premier League

18 May 2026 Arsenal 1–0 Burnley H ENG Premier League

10 May 2026 West Ham United 0–1 Arsenal A ENG Premier League

05 May 2026 Arsenal 1–0 Atlético Madrid H ITL UEFA Champions League

02 May 2026 Arsenal 3–0 Fulham H ENG Premier League

29 Apr 2026 Atlético Madrid 1–1 Arsenal D ITL UEFA Champions League

25 Apr 2026 Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle United H ENG Premier League

19 Apr 2026 Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal A ENG Premier League

15 Apr 2026 Arsenal 0–0 Sporting CP D ITL UEFA Champions League

11 Apr 2026 Arsenal 1–2 Bournemouth H ENG Premier League

07 Apr 2026 Sporting CP 0–1 Arsenal A ITL UEFA Champions League

The draw predictor estimates which teams are statistically overdue a draw by blending each side's recent draw rate, its current no-draw streak and how stretched that streak is against the team's own record. The resulting draw-debt score (E = p_weighted × N) ranks candidates relative to the teams in view, so a side sitting at its record maximum reads as more overdue than one with room to spare. Use it to find draw-likely fixtures grounded in historical draw frequency.