| Figure | Spartans | Forfar Athletic | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 9 | 0 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 25 | 24 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 2.09 | 0.00 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 28.0% | 26.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 20.0% | 28.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 21.4% | 23.4% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.450 | 0.078 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 155 | 1,727 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 9 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 2.09 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.528 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 9 | +19 | 27 |
| 2 | Clyde | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 20 | +10 | 27 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 21 |
| 4 | Edinburgh City | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 20 |
| 5 | Spartans | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 18 |
| 6 | Kelty Hearts | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 18 |
| 7 | Dumbarton | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 16 |
| 8 | Stirling Albion | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 15 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 12 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 9 |