New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union

Match ☆ 21 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC

USA · MLS · 2026

USA New England Revolution

Current form · last 20

D W D L L W D W L W W W L L W W W W L L

Latest results · oldest first

Current league place

#11 / 30 · USA · MLS · 2026

As of this morning · domestic league only

View head-to-head record →

The models forecast for this fixture

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	New England Revolution	Philadelphia Union	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	13	2	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	20	18	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	2.16	0.44	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	16.0%	22.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	17.0%	22.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	23.9%	25.8%	share of every match drawn
Draw scorethe predictor ranking score	0.500	0.150	the predictor ranking score
Rankposition in that ranking	100	1,083	position in that ranking
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	15		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	2.60		both sides' draw debt added
Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by	0.650		what the Cross predictor orders by

Team strength · Elo

New England Revolution 1,554

Philadelphia Union 1,654

Rating gap -35 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 26.3% 25–49 · 73,203 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.63 home – away

Home win 37.3%

Draw 24.3% every level score added up

Away win 38.4%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 24.9% 70% goals model · 30% Elo gap

Goals model said 24.3% form only

This Elo gap said 26.3% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 25.2% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 25.2% – 25.8% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 24.9% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · MLS · 2026 Current indexed standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	71	25	+46	77
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	74	34	+40	64
3	Inter Miami CF	34	16	12	6	80	59	+21	60
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	62	51	+11	58
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	55	47	+8	58
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	64	54	+10	55
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	66	51	+15	54
8	St. Louis City SC	34	15	9	10	59	48	+11	54
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	57	51	+6	52
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	43	43	0	51
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	66	52	+14	50
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	52	40	+12	47
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	59	52	+7	47
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	62	61	+1	46
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	44	46	-2	46
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	67	75	-8	46
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	63	78	-15	46
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	53	52	+1	45
19	Minnesota United	34	11	11	12	56	58	-2	44
20	LA Galaxy	34	11	11	12	50	57	-7	44
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	47	50	-3	43
22	New York City	34	10	12	12	49	45	+4	42
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	48	62	-14	42
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	52	67	-15	39
25	San Diego FC	34	9	11	14	57	63	-6	38
26	Austin FC	34	8	10	16	42	65	-23	34
27	Atlanta United	34	9	6	19	43	60	-17	33
28	D.C. United	34	7	12	15	39	61	-22	33
29	CF Montréal	34	6	8	20	37	69	-32	26
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	40	81	-41	26

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