| Figure | Excelsior Rotterdam | AZ Alkmaar | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 6 | 5 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 14 | 20 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 1.50 | 1.23 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 22.0% | 24.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 27.0% | 25.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 22.4% | 21.7% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.335 | 0.248 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 356 | 570 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 11 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 2.73 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.583 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 15 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 17 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 | SC Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 | SC Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 12 |
| 15 | Excelsior Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | SC Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Willem II Tilburg | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 |