| Figure | FC Sochaux-Montbéliard | Montpellier HSC | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 4 | 6 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 20 | 17 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 1.15 | 1.25 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 30.0% | 22.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 28.0% | 20.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 28.6% | 27.7% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.248 | 0.289 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 569 | 448 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 10 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 2.40 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.537 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Saint-Étienne | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 28 |
| 2 | AS Nancy-Lorraine | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 25 |
| 3 | Montpellier HSC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 24 |
| 4 | Stade de Reims | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 | Pau FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 6 | Dijon FCO | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 18 |
| 7 | Metz | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 | Red Star | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Annecy | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 16 |
| 10 | USL Dunkerque | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | EA Guingamp | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | US Boulogne | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 13 | Rodez AF | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
| 14 | Nantes | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Clermont Foot | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | FC Sochaux-Montbéliard | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 | Grenoble Foot 38 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 11 |
| 18 | Stade Lavallois | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 |