| Figure | Pau FC | AS Saint-Étienne | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 7 | 5 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 12 | 17 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 1.71 | 0.76 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 22.0% | 14.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 26.0% | 16.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 27.4% | 28.6% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.452 | 0.236 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 161 | 622 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 12 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 2.47 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.687 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Saint-Étienne | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 25 |
| 2 | Montpellier HSC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 24 |
| 3 | AS Nancy-Lorraine | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 22 |
| 4 | Stade de Reims | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 | Pau FC | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 | Red Star | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 | Annecy | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 16 |
| 8 | Dijon FCO | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | EA Guingamp | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Metz | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Rodez AF | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | USL Dunkerque | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Sochaux-Montbéliard | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 11 |
| 14 | US Boulogne | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Nantes | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Stade Lavallois | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 11 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 | Grenoble Foot 38 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 8 |