| Figure | Peterborough United | Barnsley | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 2 | 0 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 22 | 25 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.46 | 0.00 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 24.0% | 32.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 22.0% | 26.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 23.9% | 26.2% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.134 | 0.083 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,216 | 1,680 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 2 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 0.46 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.217 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield Town | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 | Luton Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 | Oxford United | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Plymouth Argyle | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 | Reading | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 22 |
| 7 | Bradford City | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 | Cambridge United | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 | Leicester City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 | Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 | Wycombe Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 | Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 12 |
| 20 | Doncaster Rovers | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
| 21 | Wigan Athletic | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 | Peterborough United | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 9 |
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 33 | -20 | 9 |