| Figure | Blackburn Rovers | Derby County | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 6 | 2 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 26 | 22 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 1.68 | 0.40 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 34.0% | 18.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 24.0% | 21.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 26.0% | 24.7% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.297 | 0.129 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 436 | 1,266 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 8 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 2.08 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.426 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 14 | +15 | 28 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 17 | +13 | 28 |
| 3 | Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 | Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 6 | West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 25 |
| 7 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 24 |
| 8 | West Ham United | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 | Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 | Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 | Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 | Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 | Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby County | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 29 | -18 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 5 |