| Figure | Lincoln City | Stoke City | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 2 | 1 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 24 | 23 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.41 | 0.25 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 18.0% | 24.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 22.0% | 26.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 26.5% | 27.2% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.132 | 0.113 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,253 | 1,417 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 3 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 0.66 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.245 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 17 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 | Southampton | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 27 |
| 3 | Swansea City | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 24 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 24 |
| 6 | Birmingham City | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 8 | West Ham United | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 | Queens Park Rangers | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 16 | +5 | 20 |
| 10 | Sheffield United | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 19 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 19 |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 | Blackburn Rovers | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 | Norwich City | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 | Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 14 |
| 20 | Charlton Athletic | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby County | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 27 | -17 | 5 |