| Figure | Sparta Rotterdam | NEC Nijmegen | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 1 | 1 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 23 | 20 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.27 | 0.28 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 26.0% | 30.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 28.0% | 27.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 23.2% | 25.4% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.115 | 0.120 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,401 | 1,355 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 2 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 0.55 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.234 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 12 | +21 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 13 | +17 | 24 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 13 | +22 | 23 |
| 4 | Twente | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 19 |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | SC Cambuur | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 22 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Utrecht | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 11 |
| 15 | Excelsior Rotterdam | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 11 |
| 16 | SC Telstar | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II Tilburg | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 39 | -29 | 2 |