| Figure | Stenhousemuir | Ayr United | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 3 | 2 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 23 | 33 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.91 | 0.55 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 34.0% | 28.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 28.0% | 27.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 23.5% | 24.3% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.200 | 0.147 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 769 | 1,103 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 5 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 1.46 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.346 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick Thistle | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 24 |
| 3 | Dunfermline Athletic | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 24 |
| 4 | Stenhousemuir | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 23 |
| 5 | Livingston | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 20 |
| 6 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 19 |
| 7 | Ayr United | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 11 |
| 9 | Greenock Morton | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 10 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 7 |