| Figure | Aston Villa | Crystal Palace | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 0 | 3 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 23 | 15 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.00 | 0.73 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 16.0% | 22.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 14.0% | 26.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 24.4% | 26.9% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.054 | 0.196 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,918 | 786 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 3 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 0.73 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.250 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 | Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Hull City | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Leeds United | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Newcastle United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Fulham | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Coventry City | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 |