Match ☆ 15 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC
ITL · UEFA Nations League · 2026
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The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Finland San Marino Calcio
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw 2 4
Max Nthis team's longest run ever 21 4
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run 0.31 0.00
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches 16.0% 0.0%
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches 15.0% 0.0%
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn 20.3% 0.0%
Draw scorethe predictor ranking score 0.120 0.000
Rankposition in that ranking 1,355 —

These are each team's figures as they stand today — this match has no stored Cross row, so they are not the numbers that held when it was played.

Team strength · Elo
Finland 1,611
San Marino Calcio 1,486
Rating gap +185 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 23.1% 150–199 · 6,447 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals 3.24 – 0.78 home – away
Home win 84.0%
Draw 10.6% every level score added up
Away win 5.3%
Both together · the blend
Blended draw chance 13.6% 70% goals model · 30% Elo gap
Goals model said 10.6% form only
This Elo gap said 23.1% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.