Match
ESP · Segunda División · 2026
The models
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
| Figure | Girona | Celta Fortuna | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw run | 5 | 5 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max N | 13 | 5 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debt | 1.53 | 0.83 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50 | 36.0% | 16.7% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100 | 27.0% | 16.7% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all time | 27.0% | 16.7% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw score | 0.324 | 0.456 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rank | 336 | 128 | position in that ranking |
| Σ N | 10 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ E | 2.36 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Score | 0.780 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
Team strength · Elo
Girona
1,791
Celta Fortuna
1,638
Rating gap
+218
home advantage included
Draws at this gap
20.1%
200–299 · 49,691 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.21
home – away
Home win
48.4%
Draw
25.0%
every level score added up
Away win
26.6%
Both together · the blend
Blended draw chance
23.9%
80% goals model · 20% Elo gap
Goals model said
25.0%
form only
This Elo gap said
20.1%
strength only
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.