Coventry City vs West Ham United

Match ☆ 18 Feb 1995

ENG · Premier League · 1994

ENG Coventry City

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	Coventry City	West Ham United	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	2	0	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	9	16	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.62	0.00	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	32.0%	20.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	30.0%	26.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	22.4%	25.5%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	2		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	0.62		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 18 Feb 1995, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

Coventry City 1,563 after: 1,575

West Ham United 1,562 after: 1,550

Rating gap +66 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 25.0% 50–74 · 79,350 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.07 home – away

Home win 38.4%

Draw 29.9% every level score added up

Away win 31.8%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 28.4% 70% goals model · 30% Elo gap

Goals model said 29.9% form only

This Elo gap said 25.0% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 28.2% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 28.2% – 29.0% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 28.4% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Premier League · 19941995 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Blackburn Rovers Champion	42	27	8	7	80	39	+41	89
2	Manchester United	42	26	10	6	77	28	+49	88
3	Nottingham Forest	42	22	11	9	72	43	+29	77
4	Liverpool	42	21	11	10	65	37	+28	74
5	Leeds United	42	20	13	9	59	38	+21	73
6	Newcastle United	42	20	12	10	67	47	+20	72
7	Tottenham Hotspur	42	16	14	12	66	58	+8	62
8	Queens Park Rangers	42	17	9	16	61	59	+2	60
9	Wimbledon	42	15	11	16	48	65	-17	56
10	Southampton	42	12	18	12	61	63	-2	54
11	Chelsea	42	13	15	14	50	55	-5	54
12	Arsenal	42	13	12	17	52	49	+3	51
13	Sheffield Wednesday	42	13	12	17	49	57	-8	51
14	West Ham United	42	13	11	18	44	48	-4	50
15	Everton	42	11	17	14	44	51	-7	50
16	Coventry City	42	12	14	16	44	62	-18	50
17	Manchester City	42	12	13	17	53	64	-11	49
18	Aston Villa	42	11	15	16	51	56	-5	48
19	Crystal Palace	42	11	12	19	34	49	-15	45
20	Norwich City	42	10	13	19	37	54	-17	43
21	Leicester City	42	6	11	25	45	80	-35	29
22	Ipswich Town	42	7	6	29	36	93	-57	27

‹ Coventry City West Ham United ›