What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 15 Sep 2015 → 13 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 8 | 01 Jan 2015 → 08 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 6 | 28 Mar 2016 → 30 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 6 | 25 Feb 2014 → 18 Mar 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 13 Feb 2016 → 01 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 06 Dec 2015 → 23 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 08 Oct 2014 → 11 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 08 Apr 2014 → 26 Apr 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 08 Oct 2013 → 09 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 25 Apr 2015 → 15 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National League | 138 | 35 | 25.4% | 6 | 8 |
| FA Cup | 25 | 6 | 24.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% | 6 |
| 2015 | 45 | 9 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2014 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 6 |
| 2013 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 5 |
| 2005 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2001 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1999 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1998 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1996 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 1 |
| 1988 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1987 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Over 163 matches (Nov 1986 – Apr 2016), Welling United drew 41 where the draw model expected 42.9 from those particular fixtures — about 2 fewer, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 40.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.