What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 01 Nov 2014 → 03 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 09 May 1999 → 31 Oct 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 09 Apr 2021 → 21 Sep 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 19 Apr 2014 → 16 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 02 Oct 2021 → 08 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 03 Jan 2009 → 10 Mar 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 23 Apr 1996 → 17 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 01 Apr 1995 → 29 Aug 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 10 Jan 1984 → 26 Jan 1985 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 04 Mar 2017 → 21 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 1072 | 292 | 27.2% | 11 | 21 |
| FA Cup | 308 | 67 | 21.8% | 1 | 6 |
| Premier League | 304 | 66 | 21.7% | 2 | 13 |
| League Cup | 192 | 43 | 22.4% | 2 | 6 |
| League One | 92 | 35 | 38.0% | 2 | 8 |
| Club Friendlies | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 11 |
| 2025 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 11 |
| 2023 | 49 | 17 | 34.7% | 4 |
| 2022 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 10 |
| 2021 | 46 | 4 | 8.7% | 14 |
| 2020 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 10 |
| 2019 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 10 |
| 2018 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 6 |
| 2017 | 44 | 7 | 15.9% | 12 |
| 2016 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 8 |
| 2015 | 47 | 8 | 17.0% | 12 |
| 2014 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 14 |
| 2013 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 8 |
| 2012 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 9 |
| 2011 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 10 |
| 2010 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 9 |
| 2009 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 13 |
| 2008 | 54 | 18 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2007 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 9 |
| 2006 | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 10 |
| 2005 | 54 | 15 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 2004 | 53 | 18 | 34.0% | 10 |
| 2003 | 53 | 14 | 26.4% | 8 |
| 2002 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 7 |
| 2001 | 53 | 11 | 20.8% | 12 |
| 2000 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 10 |
| 1999 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 17 |
| 1998 | 51 | 20 | 39.2% | 7 |
| 1997 | 56 | 18 | 32.1% | 8 |
| 1996 | 55 | 22 | 40.0% | 13 |
| 1995 | 52 | 17 | 32.7% | 13 |
| 1994 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 11 |
| 1993 | 28 | 8 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 1992 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1987 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 1985 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1984 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 10 |
| 1983 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1982 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1981 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 6 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1977 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1976 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1975 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1970 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1969 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1966 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1965 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1963 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1962 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1960 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1959 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 2 |
| 1945 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1934 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1933 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1932 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1931 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1930 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1923 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1922 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1912 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1887 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1886 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 563 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Watford drew 131 where the draw model expected 146.5 from those particular fixtures — about 15 fewer, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 146.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.