What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 05 Mar 2022 → 31 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 06 Apr 2024 → 31 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 09 Feb 2021 → 05 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 02 Nov 2020 → 30 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 08 Apr 2023 → 15 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 01 Sep 2023 → 30 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 18 Sep 2022 → 19 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 19 Sep 2021 → 17 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 18 Feb 2023 → 08 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 30 Oct 2021 → 28 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ekstraklasa | 132 | 32 | 24.2% | 8 | 18 |
| Polish Cup | 59 | 16 | 27.1% | 1 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2025 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2024 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 10 |
| 2023 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2022 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 19 |
| 2021 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 8 |
| 2020 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 7 |
| 2019 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2018 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2013 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2011 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2010 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2009 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2008 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1999 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1998 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1996 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1995 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1994 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1993 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1988 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1987 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1986 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1984 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 149 matches (Jul 2017 – Aug 2026), Warta Poznań drew 36 where the draw model expected 42.0 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 39.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.