Vasco da Gama
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 406 matches (Apr 2015 – Sep 2026), Vasco da Gama drew 117 where the draw model expected 114.1 from those particular fixtures — about 3 more, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 109.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 24 Sep 2025 → 14 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 31 May 2015 → 30 Jul 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 14 May 2023 → 06 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 16 Mar 2017 → 25 Jun 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 16 Aug 2026 → 20 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 04 Dec 2024 → 16 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 29 Sep 2012 → 04 Nov 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 20 Feb 2019 → 02 May 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 24 Oct 2024 → 24 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 04 Jul 2024 → 28 Jul 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 407 | 110 | 27.0% | 6 | 16 |
| Copa do Brasil | 86 | 31 | 36.1% | 3 | 5 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 8 |
| 2025 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 17 |
| 2024 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 6 |
| 2023 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 12 |
| 2022 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2020 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 5 |
| 2019 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 7 |
| 2018 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 5 |
| 2017 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 11 |
| 2016 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2015 | 48 | 15 | 31.3% | 15 |
| 2014 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2013 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 5 |
| 2012 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 8 |
| 2000 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 19:00 |
Palmeiras
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.9% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 20:00 |
Vasco da Gama
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.