What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 06 May 2023 → 04 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 08 Sep 2022 → 06 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 31 Aug 2019 → 08 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 23 Nov 2024 → 26 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 13 Nov 2022 → 11 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 15 Jan 2022 → 05 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 17 Dec 2019 → 24 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 16 Mar 2012 → 06 May 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 09 May 2003 → 19 Sep 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 16 Apr 2017 → 04 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 442 | 132 | 29.9% | 0 | 9 |
| Bundesliga | 246 | 65 | 26.4% | 0 | 15 |
| DFB-Pokal | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 2 | 5 |
| 3. Liga | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 1 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Europa League | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Conference League | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 5 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 6 |
| 2025 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 6 |
| 2024 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 5 |
| 2023 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 19 |
| 2022 | 45 | 7 | 15.6% | 15 |
| 2021 | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 7 |
| 2020 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2019 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 13 |
| 2018 | 36 | 17 | 47.2% | 4 |
| 2017 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 8 |
| 2016 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2015 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 5 |
| 2014 | 35 | 13 | 37.1% | 5 |
| 2013 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 6 |
| 2012 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2011 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 5 |
| 2010 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2009 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 8 |
| 2008 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 4 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 6 |
| 2003 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 9 |
| 2002 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 7 |
| 2001 | 22 | 6 | 27.3% | 5 |
Over 468 matches (Feb 2015 – Nov 2026), 1. FC Union Berlin drew 132 where the draw model expected 117.1 from those particular fixtures — about 15 more, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 119.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.