What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 02 Jan 2016 → 07 May 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 06 Dec 2024 → 28 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 30 Nov 2007 → 07 Apr 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 29 May 1999 → 10 Nov 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 22 Oct 2017 → 20 Jan 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 22 Nov 2019 → 28 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 25 Oct 2014 → 30 Jan 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 03 Dec 1999 → 25 Mar 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 04 Apr 2014 → 18 Aug 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 16 Dec 2011 → 02 Mar 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 2 | 674 | 177 | 26.3% | 5 | 15 |
| Ligue 1 | 415 | 112 | 27.0% | 1 | 18 |
| Coupe de France | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | 3 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 0 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 2025 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 14 |
| 2024 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2023 | 42 | 14 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2022 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 5 |
| 2021 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 8 |
| 2020 | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | 8 |
| 2019 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 9 |
| 2018 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 9 |
| 2017 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 10 |
| 2016 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 21 |
| 2015 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 10 |
| 2014 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 11 |
| 2013 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 10 |
| 2012 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 9 |
| 2011 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 11 |
| 2010 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 2009 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 6 |
| 2008 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 14 |
| 2007 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 8 |
| 2006 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 5 |
| 2005 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2004 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 9 |
| 2003 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 5 |
| 2002 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2001 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 8 |
| 2000 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 10 |
| 1999 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 16 |
| 1998 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 7 |
| 1997 | 44 | 18 | 40.9% | 6 |
| 1996 | 23 | 9 | 39.1% | 5 |
Over 453 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), ES Troyes AC drew 104 where the draw model expected 129.2 from those particular fixtures — about 25 fewer, or 2.6 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 7 times running. A flat league average would have expected 132.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.