What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 421 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Toronto FC drew 108 where the draw model expected 102.6 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 105.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 02 Aug 2015 → 06 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 22 Jun 2023 → 21 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 16 Jun 2024 → 22 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 03 Mar 2024 → 26 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 15 Sep 2013 → 17 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 26 Aug 2018 → 27 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 18 Mar 2012 → 17 Jun 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 12 Aug 2017 → 15 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 20 Apr 2025 → 01 Jun 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 26 Oct 2014 → 10 May 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLS | 512 | 133 | 26.0% | 6 | 17 |
| Club Friendlies | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 1 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31 | 12 | 38.7% | 6 |
| 2025 | 34 | 14 | 41.2% | 9 |
| 2024 | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | 14 |
| 2023 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 16 |
| 2022 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 6 |
| 2021 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 7 |
| 2020 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% | 7 |
| 2019 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 6 |
| 2018 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 10 |
| 2017 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 10 |
| 2016 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2015 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 16 |
| 2014 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2013 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 6 |
| 2012 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 11 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 17:00 |
Toronto FC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Wed, 14 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 14 Oct 23:30 |
Toronto FC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 23:30 |
New York Red Bulls
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 19:30 |
Columbus Crew
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 23:30 |
Toronto FC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 21:30 |
Atlanta United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 21:00 |
Philadelphia Union
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.6% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.