What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 01 Aug 2015 → 06 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 21 Jun 2023 → 21 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 15 Jun 2024 → 21 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 03 Mar 2024 → 25 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 14 Sep 2013 → 17 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 25 Aug 2018 → 27 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 17 Mar 2012 → 16 Jun 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 12 Aug 2017 → 15 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 19 Apr 2025 → 31 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 25 Oct 2014 → 10 May 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLS | 516 | 134 | 26.0% | 4 | 17 |
| Club Friendlies | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 1 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 13 | 37.1% | 5 |
| 2025 | 34 | 14 | 41.2% | 9 |
| 2024 | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | 14 |
| 2023 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 16 |
| 2022 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 6 |
| 2021 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 7 |
| 2020 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% | 7 |
| 2019 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 6 |
| 2018 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 10 |
| 2017 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 10 |
| 2016 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2015 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 16 |
| 2014 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2013 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 6 |
| 2012 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 11 |
Over 425 matches (Mar 2015 – Nov 2026), Toronto FC drew 109 where the draw model expected 104.0 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 107.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.