What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 19 Jan 2014 → 19 Apr 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 11 Feb 2018 → 27 Apr 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 24 Feb 2013 → 26 Jul 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 11 Aug 2018 → 28 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 15 Feb 2025 → 16 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 15 Mar 2020 → 08 Sep 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 18 Apr 2026 → 02 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 04 Feb 2017 → 13 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 23 Aug 2025 → 18 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 05 Feb 2023 → 12 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liga MX | 552 | 153 | 27.7% | 0 | 14 |
| Campeón de Campeones | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 9 |
| 2025 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 10 |
| 2024 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 7 |
| 2023 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 8 |
| 2022 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 5 |
| 2021 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 6 |
| 2020 | 28 | 7 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2019 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 5 |
| 2018 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 12 |
| 2017 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 9 |
| 2016 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 4 |
| 2015 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 8 |
| 2014 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 14 |
| 2013 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 12 |
| 2012 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | 7 |
Over 453 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Deportivo Toluca drew 125 where the draw model expected 120.5 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 122.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.