What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 10 Mar 2021 → 15 May 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 01 Mar 2014 → 06 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 09 Aug 2021 → 16 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 09 Aug 2014 → 05 Oct 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 03 Nov 2021 → 04 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 09 Jun 2021 → 07 Jul 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 22 Oct 2014 → 29 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 29 Aug 2015 → 11 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 3 | 27 Aug 2016 → 22 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 2 | 11 Jun 2025 → 16 Jul 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 75 | 13 | 17.3% | 5 | 13 |
| Emperor's Cup | 40 | 6 | 15.0% | 2 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2025 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2024 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2023 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 40 | 6 | 15.0% | 13 |
| 2020 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 2018 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2015 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2014 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | 12 |
| 2013 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2012 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2011 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2007 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2006 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 116 matches (Oct 2005 – Oct 2026), Tokushima Vortis drew 19 where the draw model expected 26.9 from those particular fixtures — about 8 fewer, or 1.8 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 26.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.