What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | 18 Aug 2007 → 23 Feb 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 30 Aug 2025 → 09 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 05 Aug 2023 → 06 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 14 Mar 2021 → 28 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 26 Sep 2018 → 27 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 08 Aug 2026 → 17 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 09 Apr 2016 → 20 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 02 May 2015 → 26 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 01 Nov 2013 → 02 Mar 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 14 Dec 1999 → 08 Apr 2000 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 1062 | 270 | 25.4% | 8 | 22 |
| UEFA Europa League | 144 | 28 | 19.4% | 12 | 12 |
| DFB-Pokal | 73 | 8 | 11.0% | 3 | 9 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 68 | 13 | 19.1% | 4 | 12 |
| UEFA Champions League | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 1 | 7 |
| Club Friendlies | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 4 | 4 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 1 | 3 |
| DFL-Supercup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 13 |
| 2025 | 56 | 7 | 12.5% | 19 |
| 2024 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 7 |
| 2023 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 17 |
| 2022 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 11 |
| 2021 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 15 |
| 2020 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 8 |
| 2019 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 7 |
| 2018 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 13 |
| 2017 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 7 |
| 2016 | 37 | 5 | 13.5% | 13 |
| 2015 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 13 |
| 2014 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2013 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 7 |
| 2012 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2011 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 8 |
| 2010 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 8 |
| 2009 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 8 |
| 2008 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 11 |
| 2007 | 45 | 3 | 6.7% | 23 |
| 2006 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 9 |
| 2005 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 7 |
| 2004 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2003 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 8 |
| 2002 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 7 |
| 2001 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 8 |
| 2000 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 11 |
| 1999 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 7 |
| 1998 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 8 |
| 1997 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 8 |
| 1996 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 9 |
| 1995 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 5 |
| 1994 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% | 6 |
| 1993 | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 1992 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1988 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1986 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1983 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1979 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1978 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1973 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 1969 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1966 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
Over 486 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), VfB Stuttgart drew 100 where the draw model expected 113.0 from those particular fixtures — about 13 fewer, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 121.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.