What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 17 Jun 2023 → 02 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 25 Jun 2025 → 30 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 25 Apr 2023 → 07 Jun 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 25 Feb 2023 → 15 Apr 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 15 Apr 2026 → 13 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 09 Mar 2025 → 13 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 14 Sep 2024 → 19 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 23 Sep 2023 → 05 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 12 Sep 2026 → 11 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 17 May 2025 → 08 Jun 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLS | 137 | 35 | 25.6% | 4 | 11 |
| US Open Cup | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 0 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 7 |
| 2025 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2024 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 6 |
| 2023 | 38 | 5 | 13.2% | 11 |
Over 146 matches (Feb 2023 – Oct 2026), St. Louis City SC drew 37 where the draw model expected 35.9 from those particular fixtures — about 1 more, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 36.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.