What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | 21 Nov 2020 → 25 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 23 | 05 Apr 2014 → 18 Oct 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 21 | 29 Sep 2013 → 26 Mar 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 19 | 24 Apr 2019 → 17 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 17 | 24 Jun 2022 → 03 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 01 May 2021 → 11 Sep 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 15 | 13 May 2018 → 07 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 14 | 23 Oct 2016 → 05 Mar 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 10 Apr 1993 → 16 Oct 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 04 Jul 2023 → 03 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 482 | 104 | 21.6% | 2 | 20 |
| Austrian Cup | 257 | 50 | 19.5% | 1 | 14 |
| UEFA Champions League | 72 | 17 | 23.6% | 8 | 8 |
| Club Friendlies | 46 | 6 | 13.0% | 6 | 9 |
| UEFA Europa League | 29 | 3 | 10.3% | 0 | 8 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 9 |
| 2025 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 2024 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 7 |
| 2023 | 54 | 12 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 2022 | 55 | 10 | 18.2% | 17 |
| 2021 | 54 | 5 | 9.3% | 19 |
| 2020 | 40 | 6 | 15.0% | 9 |
| 2019 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 19 |
| 2018 | 40 | 6 | 15.0% | 15 |
| 2017 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 8 |
| 2016 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 10 |
| 2015 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 7 |
| 2014 | 41 | 4 | 9.8% | 23 |
| 2013 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 12 |
| 2012 | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | 11 |
| 2011 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2010 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2009 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2008 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2007 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2006 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2005 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2003 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2002 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2001 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2000 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1999 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1998 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1997 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1996 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1995 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1994 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1993 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 12 |
| 1992 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1991 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1989 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1984 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1982 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1980 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1979 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1976 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1975 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1974 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1971 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1964 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1959 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
Over 551 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), Red Bull Salzburg drew 113 where the draw model expected 99.0 from those particular fixtures — about 14 more, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 130.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.