What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 | 22 Aug 2014 → 10 Jan 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 28 | 03 Dec 2025 → 07 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 25 | 24 Sep 2011 → 22 Jan 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 23 | 10 Mar 2009 → 21 Oct 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 23 | 17 Mar 2004 → 03 Oct 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 21 | 22 Jun 2025 → 04 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 21 | 05 Nov 2008 → 28 Feb 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 19 | 23 Dec 2007 → 30 Mar 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 19 | 14 Oct 2000 → 14 Jan 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 18 | 15 Feb 2022 → 12 May 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Liga | 1273 | 238 | 18.7% | 16 | 26 |
| UEFA Champions League | 520 | 89 | 17.1% | 3 | 17 |
| Copa del Rey | 94 | 22 | 23.4% | 2 | 8 |
| UEFA Europa League | 64 | 10 | 15.6% | 3 | 8 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 31 | 10 | 32.3% | 0 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 25 | 4 | 16.0% | 3 | 4 |
| Supercopa de España | 21 | 6 | 28.6% | 2 | 2 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 5 | 5 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 1 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 1 | 2 |
| FIFA Intercontinental Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50 | 3 | 6.0% | 22 |
| 2025 | 68 | 9 | 13.2% | 21 |
| 2024 | 60 | 15 | 25.0% | 13 |
| 2023 | 67 | 10 | 14.9% | 15 |
| 2022 | 56 | 10 | 17.9% | 18 |
| 2021 | 57 | 14 | 24.6% | 10 |
| 2020 | 49 | 7 | 14.3% | 14 |
| 2019 | 56 | 14 | 25.0% | 12 |
| 2018 | 61 | 11 | 18.0% | 18 |
| 2017 | 64 | 10 | 15.6% | 18 |
| 2016 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 13 |
| 2015 | 58 | 9 | 15.5% | 13 |
| 2014 | 63 | 6 | 9.5% | 26 |
| 2013 | 58 | 11 | 19.0% | 11 |
| 2012 | 60 | 10 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2011 | 60 | 7 | 11.7% | 19 |
| 2010 | 50 | 7 | 14.0% | 12 |
| 2009 | 47 | 3 | 6.4% | 23 |
| 2008 | 50 | 4 | 8.0% | 18 |
| 2007 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 10 |
| 2006 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 9 |
| 2005 | 47 | 6 | 12.8% | 17 |
| 2004 | 50 | 9 | 18.0% | 23 |
| 2003 | 55 | 12 | 21.8% | 9 |
| 2002 | 53 | 16 | 30.2% | 10 |
| 2001 | 57 | 13 | 22.8% | 11 |
| 2000 | 59 | 13 | 22.0% | 17 |
| 1999 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 10 |
| 1998 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 8 |
| 1997 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 7 |
| 1996 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 5 |
| 1995 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 10 |
| 1994 | 45 | 9 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 1993 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 1992 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1991 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1989 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 1988 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1986 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1985 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 8 |
| 1984 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 7 |
| 1983 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 1 |
| 1982 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 7 |
| 1980 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1979 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1978 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1976 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1974 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1973 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1972 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1971 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1970 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1969 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1968 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1967 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 1965 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1964 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1963 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1962 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1961 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1960 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1959 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1958 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1957 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1956 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1955 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
Over 700 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Real Madrid drew 126 where the draw model expected 133.8 from those particular fixtures — about 8 fewer, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 173.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.