What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 | 01 Mar 2026 → 31 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 26 | 25 Feb 2023 → 27 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 22 | 04 Oct 2015 → 15 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 17 | 30 Sep 2016 → 25 Feb 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 21 Oct 2023 → 16 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 20 Jan 2021 → 10 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 31 Oct 2018 → 09 Dec 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 23 Nov 2024 → 15 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 20 Aug 2022 → 05 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 17 May 2025 → 27 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 348 | 82 | 23.6% | 19 | 20 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 68 | 18 | 26.5% | 2 | 21 |
| UEFA Champions League | 57 | 6 | 10.5% | 3 | 10 |
| DFB-Pokal | 50 | 5 | 10.0% | 2 | 9 |
| 3. Liga | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 4 | 9 |
| UEFA Europa League | 24 | 7 | 29.2% | 3 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 5 | 5 |
| DFL-Supercup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | 3 | 7.9% | 29 |
| 2025 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 9 |
| 2024 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 2023 | 51 | 6 | 11.8% | 26 |
| 2022 | 53 | 10 | 18.9% | 10 |
| 2021 | 53 | 11 | 20.8% | 12 |
| 2020 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 8 |
| 2019 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 7 |
| 2018 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 11 |
| 2017 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 7 |
| 2016 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 11 |
| 2015 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 2014 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 8 |
| 2013 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2011 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 543 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), RB Leipzig drew 114 where the draw model expected 121.3 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 132.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.